Noise in VPC predicted profiles

I have a simulated a SC repeated dosing PK profile. The model is a one compartmental model with 1 order absorption. I have between subjects variation on all 4 parameters (ka, Cl, Vd and F). I would like a prediction with no model variation, just the between subject variation.

The average profile of 1000 simulations looks like Picture 1 (left)

It is a bit noise and a found out that its an average of 1000 very noise single profiles Picture 2 (right)

The Ceps is set to 0

Should a single profile with only between subject variation not be without variation/noise?

Is there a way to eliminate the noise? I tried (increasing/reducing the no of time points with no luck)

Any suggestions?

Thx Frederik

Are the sampling times the same for each individual the same? If not you should try first the k-mean option you have when doing VPC. Click on binning and select K-means. This will find a set of common reference values for each individual from which the confidence bounds are generated. Try and let me know. If I could get the project it would be easier.

Best

Serge

The times are dummy times one per hour from 0-192 . Selecting K-Means did not solve the issue.

I found out that unfreezing my Ceps solved the problem. So setting Ceps to 0 and freezing Ceps at the same time was the problem.

KR Frederik